CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32269/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the east in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the M9.9 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T01:57Z from AR 3766 and/or the M7.8 flare directly preceding it from the same region. Dimming and EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 and 335 and GOES SUVI 284, post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40728
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jul 2024, 1245UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 008 
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 206 / AP: 008 
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 009

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at high level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and seven M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M9.9 flare from NOAA active region
(AR) 3766 which peaked at 01:57 UTC on Jul 28. During the flare, the source region (AR 3766) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 3766 produced three M-class flares and NOAA AR 3762, which is the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), produced four M-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next
24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class flares from NOAA AR 3766 or NOAA AR 3762.

Coronal mass ejections: ...Another halo CME was first observed in the C2 images around 02:24 UTC on Jul 28. It was associated to the two subsequent M-class flares from the NOAA AR 3766 (S07 E10) and the EUV wave. The first
M7.8 flare peaked at 01:51 UTC and the second M9.9 flare peaked at 01:57 UTC on Jul 28. Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 01:51 UTC on Jul 28, during the flaring activities. With a projected speed of about 470 km/s and its source region located closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth later on the evening of July 31.

-------

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 02:24 UTC on Jul 28. This CME was associated to two subsequent M-class flares from the NOAA AR 3766 (S07 E10) and the EUV wave. The first M7.8 flare peaked at 01:51 UTC and the second M9.9 flare peaked at 01:57 UTC on Jul 28. Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 01:51 UTC on Jul 28, during the flaring activities. With a projected speed of about 470 km/s and its source region located closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth later on the evening of July 31.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #

Lead Time: 51.20 hour(s)
Difference: -6.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-07-29T10:34Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement